Coming up in today's video, the stock
market is pulling back here a little bit
from yesterday's major move higher. And
this morning, we had a little bit of
softer than expected retail sales
numbers showing a little bit of slowing
in consumer spending. And we also had
inflation numbers that came in lower
than expected, which was good news.
The dollar index is retracing off of
this 100 level, at least for now, as
probabilities for a rate cut in December
have spiked up to just about 83%.
In the December 10th meeting, we are
going to see a Fed rate cut. That is the
expectation for now. A big reason for
this swing is the San Francisco
president Fed's dally backs a December
rate cut, citing a vulnerable labor
market. We also heard from Secretary
Bessant saying that there is a very good
chance that Trump will announce a Fed
chair before Christmas. Obviously, we
know Jerome Pal is on the way out of the
Federal Reserve as Trump will have the
decision as to who the next chair will
be. He has mentioned in a couple
interviews that he thinks he already
knows. And this is actually huge news
because the person that he chooses, if
they are as dovish as many people are
expecting, there's a good chance that
we're going to see some lower interest
rates in 2026, helping to spur the
economy hopefully. Uh let's just hope it
doesn't turn into more inflation, but
that is up for debate and what we'll
probably be focused on next year.
There's a little preview. In other news,
US official says that Ukraine agrees to
peace proposal as Zinsky says much work
ahead and we can see a little softness
in gold's price action in response to
this. However, the overall upward trend
in gold still seems to be intact and I'm
going to be actually trimming my stop
loss here, probably moving it right
around here. Essentially, I still like
the upside for gold. We have longerterm
momentum to the upside. Rate cuts are
very much coming down the pipeline. Uh,
and I also see still risks to the global
national debt phenomenon, which is sort
of a persistent reason to stay bullish
in gold in my personal opinion. Here's a
quick look at the put to call ratio on
gold. Showing a little bit of surge in
call volume here recently. And the S&P
500 has gone back to being a little bit
more neutral in sentiment, at least in
short-term options flows after the
massive sell-off that we saw as a lot of
people got bearish on the market. But
from a longerterm perspective, we still
have very bearish or negative sentiment
when it comes to crowd uh sentiment uh
from the AI investor sentiment survey.
The latest weekly filing showcasing here
that around 44% of respondents said
they're bearish on the market. This is
historically quite high. The stock
market is down a little bit here. Take a
look at the S&P 500 this morning, down
about half a percent, NASDAQ's down
about 1% and the Dow Jones is flat on
the day. Meanwhile, the Russell is
actually green. Part of the turmoil in
the NASDAQ is actually related to the
crowned king of this rally, Nvidia,
actually having a side step today.
Nvidia's trading lower down to $172 a
share. And even if you don't trade the
stock, if you trade indices, this really
matters because Nvidia is a key player
to the overall AI rally. But what you
may have also noticed is that Google or
Alphabet is launching higher here
recently. And these two stocks are
actually kind of going head-to-head.
Google stock jumps while Nvidia slides.
On Meta news, Alphabet stock surged 4%
in pre-market trading while Nvidia fell
three now 5% following reports that Meta
is considering purchasing Google's
tensor processing units for AI
infrastructure. If there's one thing
that Nvidia does not like, it's
competition in terms of their customer
basis. And looking at some of the
financials for Nvidia, specifically
ticker symbol NVDA, the trailing
12-month PE on this stock is pretty
expensive. The company has massive
earnings and revenue growth. And for
this valuation to be justified, you need
to see that continue to be the case.
Here's Nvidia's income statement. We're
looking at all this, by the way, on the
stockbox, which you can find out
information on in the description down
below. Revenue over time has been
scaling really well for this company.
However, with this really awesome income
statement and this really impressive
growth comes very very very
high expectations. Net income for this
company is massive. Profit margins are
excellent. And so the thing here is for
this company to maintain such a stellar
reputation, there can be no hiccups. It
has to continue to massively continue to
build revenue and income. If something
comes along to threaten the
opportunities for Nvidia to scale that
income, the stock can correct very hard.
It's sort of like if you're thinking
about the best athlete you can possibly
think of, if they have one bad game,
people are going to go crazy about it
cuz the expectation is just so high for
that top tier athlete. Think of Nvidia
as the
>> LeBron James
>> of the stock market right now. By the
way, the tool that I showed you just a
second ago, that was the stockbox. It's
currently 40% off with our Black Friday
discount. The promo code and information
for this can be found in the description
down below. Don't miss it. It's the
lowest price that we do all year long.
So, yesterday the NASDAQ had a really
impressive bounce with some volatility
coming in here today at pretty expected
uh a key level of resistance. We've been
talking about this on the channel. In
fact, I'll do a technical breakdown of
the NASDAQ here. I remain overall big
picture still bullish. We hit that 100
day moving average. We nailed key
support looking left. and I figured that
this would be a good spot to see some
sort of a bounce. So, I went long the
QQQ ETF. Here's a look at that position.
Now, I've got my stop loss just below
structure here in case this thing
completely wipes out. But when it comes
to the NASDAQ removing our moving
averages, there's something that I'm
watching for here into this week. From a
technical perspective, the bears have
had at least a pretty good run at giving
us a nice pullback here. You can see at
one point the NASDAQ was down 9.3%.
This is very normal in a bull market and
just a healthy correction until proven
otherwise. But let's talk about the bull
case and the bare case from a technical
perspective. Now, obviously I am long so
I'm telling you I am bullish. I'm not
trying to hide or you know talk both
sides of my mouth in terms of what I
think could happen. But I'll give you a
technical breakdown uh of where I would
draw the conclusion of like maybe this
idea wasn't so great uh and I'll cut the
loss or if we can see a certain thing
happen it could get really bullish. Let
me show you. So, if I draw this fib from
the swing high to the swing low, you can
see it gives me my standard three
levels. If you want to, by the way,
pause the video and set up your own uh
fib retracement levels. This is how I
have mine sorted out. I also use the use
one color feature cuz I think it makes
it look cleaner. But anyways, what we
can see here is that we've actually
pulled back from the high to the low to
the 38.2% retracement. Now, this whole
area, this 38.2% to 61.8% 8% retracement
is game time for the bears if they're
going to make it move lower. What I mean
by that is that if you actually do not
see a reaction from the bears that's
strong enough, meaning you start to
actually climb through these key areas
of what should be resistance, I think
you are looking at blue sky territory
for the NASDAQ. Now, let me be more
granular. If we can break through the
618% retracement for the NASDAQ, I think
we are headed back to all-time highs uh
in a hurry. I think this is a move that
has happened off of fear. We talked
about sentiment being very pessimistic
recently. If that kind of reverses, I
mentioned this in my video yesterday.
Some people had some questions about it.
Sentiment is very finicky. It's very
fragile. Everybody can jump ship one way
or the other very quickly. Unlike a
macrobased fundamental sell-off, if you
have something where unemployment rate
is spiking, the Fed is hiking interest
rates or something like that that's just
structurally incredibly bearish to the
story, that is different than everybody
is a little bit shaken up about the AI
trade and Bitcoin dropping and so
they're selling everything. That is more
of a thing that can be quickly unra uh,
you know, unraveled and and flipped
script. I don't see right now a macro
reason to be super short the market and
so I remain bullish. That's we'll talk
about macro in just a second. From a
technical perspective, however, if the
bears are going to hold it, it's
probably in this region, right? You
would see if the bears are strong here,
you would see them selling into these
regions. And more specifically, where I
truly throw in the towel on this long
idea that I have, admit that I'm wrong,
and take hate in the comments like I
usually do when I'm wrong as part of the
game as a YouTuber in the trading space.
Look, I show what I'm doing in the
markets. Whether I'm right or wrong, uh,
you know, if I'm wrong publicly, it
happens. It won't be the first time or
last time. If we throw in uh if we're
talking about throwing in the towel, it
would be a break through this level.
This is pretty clearly a major level of
support. We've seen a huge reaction to
this area. If sellers are strong enough
to actually push us back through those
lows, I need to close out of the trade
for a controlled loss and move on to the
next one. However, from a technical
perspective, I think we look very strong
if we can get head and shoulders above
the 618% retracement. And from there, I
think we likely would move back to
all-time highs in my personal opinion.
As always, nothing in my videos here is
financial advice. I have a disclaimer
down below for that very reason. I'm
simply sharing my thoughts and opinions
for educational purposes only. Do what
you want, but for this channel, I'm all
about lowrisk trading and admitting when
we're wrong quickly to control our
downside risk in markets. When it comes
to the trading universe, everybody wants
to talk about magical indicators and
talk about their winning trades. But on
this channel, what I do my best to do is
show you both the ups and the downs.
Couple things that I live by and how
I've survived almost 10 years in the
markets at this point. I don't use
leverage. If I do, it's very minimal and
for very short periods of time. It's
not, you know, all out ever all-in kind
of moves. Uh essentially, I never go
allin. Uh I don't use leverage. I also
trade with the best possible tools and
indicators and analysis that I can do to
build edge in the market. And I rely on
edge over many repeated iterations, not
an all-in bet on one particular idea. I
could be dead wrong about this idea and
it's not going to hurt. In the long-term
scheme of things, it's about having an
edge and applying it over many repeated
iterations with small risk per trade so
that you can survive the draw downs that
will inevitably hit your account like
they will mine. I also am big when it
comes to my momentum style of trading in
cutting losses quickly. To build edge, I
look at three main components. I talk
about technical analysis. I talk about
fundamental analysis and I talk about
sentiment analysis, tracking what the
crowd is thinking for looking for
riskreward opportunities that look too
juicy to pass up. For example, when
everybody gets bearish, I like to be
looking for long setups if the
technicals and fundamentals align. But I
do rely on all three categories to align
in order to give me a potential setup.
For this idea, I used the edgefinder's
top setups algorithm, which looks at
sentiment data, technical data, and
economic data for me to help build a
logical trade plan. Sentiment data like
for example the commitment of traders
report, the put call ratio, investor
sentiment surveys, technical readings
like trend and seasonality, economic
data like labor statistics, economic
growth metrics and inflation reports.
All of these things are automatically
calculated and monitored for me by the
edgefinder. For example, for economic
data, the US economic heat map is all
being monitored and tracked by our
system to help generate trading ideas uh
that could be forming in markets. Part
of the reason I've been very bullish on
equities here recently is because
seasonally we are expecting a strong
move this time of year. Is that a
guarantee? No. Nothing in trading is a
guarantee. It's all educated guesswork.
But educated guesswork is made insanely
easier when you actually have tools that
can monitor a wide range of data points
on your behalf. The EdgeFinder's top
setups algorithm is the crown jewel of
EdgeFinder because it's watching
sentiment, technical, and economic data
on your behalf and notifying you of
things that it's looking at and finding.
I use this for all of my trading all of
the time. If you do not have a copy of
the EdgeFinder and you are a regular
viewer of my channel, now is your chance
to get it at the lowest price of the
entire year for our Black Friday
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You can currently get 40% off the
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split up the cost to make it more
affordable, here it is. Scan this QR
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Let us know where you're tuning in from
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So, as I've been saying in the video,
buy the freaking dip when it comes to
EdgeFinder. It's on superale right now.
Taking a look at some of the currency
setups that we've got here. Dollar yen's
looking interesting. Dollar CAD, Dollar
Swiss. We have some bullish ratings
going on. Uh, and the dollar is actually
pulling back today. So, let's take a
look at some stuff. In yesterday's
video, I mentioned that the pound dollar
at a retracement up into this level
looks like a possible bearish setup. At
which point, I do think I'm probably
going to get short the pound dollar here
today. We have major support now turned
resistance here looking left and I do
think that the riskreward for downside
in the pound dollar looks attractive at
this time. Dollar CAD is another one
that's getting a bullish rating, but
we're sitting here at highs, so I'm
probably not interested right now.
Dollar Swiss Frank, let's take a look
there. Nothing too interesting here.
Still sitting under resistance. Dollar
yen also looks attractive, but I would
need a little bit more of a pullback
here. If I draw FIBS from this low to
this high, I'd be looking at somewhere
around the 50% retracement for some
interest. And for those of you who are
using the edgefinder, I hope that you
understand what I just did there is how
I use edgefinder. Edge finder does not
mean, you know, this is bullish. I'm
just going to go buy it. The edgeinder
is scanning a bunch of stuff and then I
still as the human operator take these
readings and I go look to see if the
setup actually aligns with my trading
strategy and trading plan. The
edgefinder is not magic. It is simply a
tool that screens a bunch of data and
helps us to better heatseek for
opportunities that might be out there.
But it will not do all the work for you.
And we're not out here selling dreams.
The edgefinder is a tool for traders who
take this stuff seriously and are
looking to build an edge through finding
more insights in their trading analysis.
I mean, it's literally called edgeinder.
It's not edge found. It's not doing all
the work for you, right? It's helping
traders. We have traders all over the
world with different styles who use
edgefinder. Momentum traders, reversal
traders, mean reversion traders, trend
followers on the high time frame, you
know, people who trade the 15-minute
chart. We have all different types of
traders who use edgefinder to screen
data. It's not sort of an out-of-the-box
trading strategy and it should not be
used that way. Just like a chainsaw is a
very effective tool for somebody who
knows how to safely operate it, the
edgefinder is as well. So, like I said
earlier, don't miss the Black Friday
sale. All the information is in the
description down below and we'll see you
guys next time. Oh, and a little bit of
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